Crude oil rose the most in two weeks in New York on concern the first tropical storm of the hurricane season may form and disrupt production in the Gulf of Mexico. The gain accelerated as the dollar weakened against the euro. Oil climbed as much as 3.4 percent after the National Hurricane Center said that a low pressure area located in the Caribbean off Honduras and Grand Cayman has a 70 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone this weekend and may head into the Gulf.

“We always see knee jerk reactions when storms enter the Gulf, and there are concerns that storms will damage either offshore or onshore infrastructure,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. Crude for August delivery gained $2.12, or 2.8 percent, to $78.63 a barrel at 1:14 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest percentage gain since June 9. Oil rose as high as $79.11. The contract has increased 0.5 percent this week.

The euro was up 0.2 percent at $1.2355 at 1:17 p.m., after falling as low as 1.2254. A lower U.S. currency versus the euro bolsters the appeal of crude as an alternative investment. “The dollar is weakening and it seemed to give crude a little boost,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. The low pressure area is likely to become a tropical depression before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and the system may become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, the hurricane center said at 8 a.m. Miami time today.

About 31 percent, or 1.69 million barrels a day, of U.S. oil production comes from federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the Energy Department…..Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Advances on Concern Storm May Disrupt Gulf of Mexico Production is news story from: News and Stories from Energy Editor

One of the most important skills a professional trader needs to develop is being able to manage his or her psychological state. Effective psychological maintenance can make all the difference between trading success and failure.

In my own trading, I have found the essential state of mind I must be in to trade at an optimal level. I call it the “zero-state.”
For me, the zero-state represents an emotionally neutral condition that is neither happy nor sad, neither overconfident nor fearful. The adjective “calm” starts to come close to what I mean but the term lacks an important distinction. “Calm” is part of an adjective pair, whose partner has precisely the opposite meaning. “Stormy” is usually given as the antonym to ” calm.”

The term ” serenity” describes a state that comes even closer to describing the zero-state than calm. Serenity suggests a timeless eternity of “no-emotion,” where I am not connected to the outcome in a personal, meaningful way.

No conventional adjective, however, can fully describe the zero-state. An adjective describes a particular condition. I associate one adjective or condition as one half of a pair of opposites. Both words of the pair form poles on a continuum where I think of the exact center as “zero,” just as on a number line. Conceptually, the Japanese term “mu” comes fairly close to this concept of center. ” Mu” has been variously described as neither yes or no, a state in-between that does not acknowledge the question being asked as one that may be answered by either yes or no, with the answer existing in a different plane of reality.

Other Useful Mental States

Other traders I know have found different mental states useful. After all, trading from an emotion-free state (like the zero-state) may not be the best mental state for you. Consider the following options for your optimal mental state in your journey of self discovery and trading mastery.

I know traders who find it necessary and useful to achieve a state of emotional alpha male competitiveness in order to enter the “ring of combat.” These traders perceive the trading environment as combative and they interpret their role accordingly. They anticipate combat, they mentally prepare for it, and they experience trading in combative terms.

Another effective trader I know needs to see himself as a pure mechanical businessman, so he takes a different approach: that of disinterested observer. He remains so disinterested that he will not even watch the trades unfold lest he’s tempted to adapt his rules mid-trade.

His analysis showed that such behavior did not add value, so his optimal mental state was to be as far away from engagement as possible. These are just two other examples of different mental states suitable for effective trading. There may be as many unique states as there are traders, which means that you must use introspection and self-knowledge to discover what works for you psychologically.

How will you know? Know thyself and consult with others you trust and respect. Above all else, however, make sure you trade with real money in very small position sizes. Doing so will help you assess the effects of market, system, money and self on your total trading performance. Without even a small amount of money on the line, you postpone the Day of Judgment. The sooner you get into the game, the sooner you will engage in real learning. In addition, you need to use trading strategies that suit your personality, time frame, risk profile and working hypothesis of market behavior. Trading in ways that fit you will help you maintain your optimal mental state for trading.

in The Van Tharp Institute, by Ken Long

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The Optimal Mental State For Trading is news story from: News and Stories from Energy Editor

Crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below Wednesday’s low crossing at 75.17 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May’s low, the 62% retracement level of May’s decline crossing at 82.67 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.48
Second resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 79.94

Crude oil pivot point for Friday is 76.13

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.03
Second support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 75.17

Learn To Trade Crude Oil and Gold ETF’s

Natural gas was lower overnight and trading below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.779. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below Tuesday’s low crossing at 4.756 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted and would open the door for a larger degree decline near term. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.926 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.926

Friday’s pivot point for natural gas is 4.767

Second resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 5.196
First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 4.756
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.628

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Crude Oil Bears Take a Clear Near Term Advantage is news story from: News and Stories from Energy Editor

Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average added 80 points, or 0.9 percent, to 8,904 after hitting a 16-month closing low the previous day. I am still long Nikkei Futures expecting a continuation of the rally. My first target is 9100.

Yesterday`s action was a little disappointing. I was antecipating a rally that didn`t materialize, but today`s globex action looks more encouraging thanks to China`s manufacturing data posting the first gain in four months.

I am also reducing my yen shorts and shifting to a ” wait and see” approach.

Oil made a big down move after the european close, which is rather uncommon. I bought on weakness and I expect to close that trade later today. Oil futures are usually rather quiet after the euroepan close, hovering around +/- 0.50 point per contract. That wasn`t the case yesterday…

By the way, have you seen this beauty from Roger,

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China Manufacturing Data Lifting Markets is news story from: News and Stories from Energy Editor

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends yesterday’s decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.36. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.98 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May’s low, the 62% retracement level of last month’s decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.37. Second resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 78.92. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.98. Second support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 75.17.

Natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week’s decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. Closes below Tuesday’s low crossing at 4.691 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.930 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.930. Second resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 5.196. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 4.691. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.628.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.13 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.13. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week’s decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1231.50 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 1266.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1231.50. Second support is Thursday’s low crossing at 1225.20.

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Crude Oil Extends Decline Below the 10 Day Moving Average is news story from: News and Stories from Energy Editor

I am having a great trading session. I was able to buy Nikkei futures near the morning`s low and really margined myself on the short Yen trade.

If the rally holds and extends itself, I am going to have one of the best trading session of this year.

I am also long Emini S&P Futures for a daytrade (I don`t have enough margin to carry them overnight).

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Long Nikkei And Short Yen. is news story from: News and Stories from Energy Editor

By Keith Schaefer of OilandGas-Investments.com

This article is a transcript of an interview I did with Canaccord stockbroker David Pescod, one of the best stockpickers in the junior oilpatch I know.  I started doing business with Dave in 1998, the middle of the “nuclear winter” of junior mining stocks, because I saw he was making good money in a bad market.  I read his daily (and free) Late Edition newsletter every single day to hear what other analysts and executives are saying.  He originally sent this article out in early August.

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My Favorite Junior Oil Stocks Exposed – the David Pescod Interview is news story from: News and Stories from Energy Editor

It’s the biggest market in the world and is traded 24 hours a day, 6 days a week, and therefore one that is impossible to ignore. I’m speaking, of course, about the forex market.

The question is, is this the tail that’s wagging the dog? Meaning, is the forex market, mainly the euro, dictating the trend in American and European equity markets.

The answer is yes, for the moment it is. Now, if you’re not familiar with the forex markets and the euro, you should look at the ETF FXE, the spot euro, and also the euro futures market at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), as they are all tradable.

In today’s short video we show you exactly how we think this currency will play out in the future. And as always, our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration. Please leave us a comment on your thoughts on this video and the current market.

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Sure, we are Trading Oil….But Forex Should not be Foreign to You….Watch New Video is news story from: News and Stories from Energy Editor

Related ETFs: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (QQQQ) , ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID)

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September Seasonality. Downside Risks Looming. is news story from: News and Stories from Energy Editor

Dan Dicker, senior contributor for The Street .Com, says despite the fact that he’s buying some energy stocks he’s avoiding oil drillers for now. Follow Dan on Twitter at Dan Dicker.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

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Dan Dicker: Avoid Oil Drillers is news story from: News and Stories from Energy Editor